Photovoltaics will become China's largest power source, and next year or will come out of policy pain!

On December 12, the report "China's PV Development Outlook for 2050" was released at the "China Corner" of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Madrid. The report predicts that by 2050 photovoltaics will become China's largest power source.

On December 13, photovoltaic concept stocks showed a strong trend, of which Dagang (002077.SZ), Oriental Risheng (300318.SZ), Sanhua Zhikong (002050.SZ), and Jinchen (603396.SH) closed at the daily limit. .

Guojin Securities predicts that the photovoltaic sector will be one of the most noteworthy and best risk-to-reward sectors in the power equipment new energy industry (even the entire market) in 2020.

At the annual meeting of China's photovoltaic industry held in Shenzhen a few days ago, Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary-general of China's photovoltaic industry association, stated that in the first 10 months of this year, China's total exports of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, cells, modules) have reached US $ 17.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, and has exceeded the total value of exports in 2018 (US $ 16.11 billion). He also said that he expects total exports in 2019 to exceed US $ 20 billion.

Giant overseas sales increase by more than 2.5 times

A Beijing-based photovoltaic industry brokerage analyst said in an interview with a reporter from the China Times that the outbreak of overseas markets for the photovoltaic industry actually began after the photovoltaic industry chain's price cuts in the second half of last year.

He analyzed that before that, due to the higher domestic industrial chain prices and the subsidy decline in overseas markets, especially in Europe, demand was not strong. After the price fell, the internal rate of return for overseas power station construction increased, and the willingness to build was strong. In the next two years, demand engines in overseas markets will continue to be active.

The growth of the overseas photovoltaic market can be seen from the semi-annual reports of listed companies.

According to Wind data, of the 29 listed photovoltaic companies that can separately extract overseas business income, the overseas business income of five companies including GCL Integration, Aerospace Mechanical and Electrical has accounted for more than 50% of the total revenue, accounting for more than 20 There are more than 15% of the companies.

At the same time, compared with the overseas business income reported last year, the overseas business income of 14 companies rose year-on-year and mostly increased sharply. Among them, the overseas business income of Sunshine Power increased by 174% year-on-year.

From the situation of the giants, Longji said in the semi-annual report that the company's overseas market expansion has achieved significant results, and the overseas sales of module products have rapidly increased. The overseas sales of overseas monocrystalline modules in the first half of 2019 increased by 252% year-on-year, accounting for 76% of the total external sales of monocrystalline modules.

Zhongtian Technology also stated in the semi-annual report that benefiting from the growing demand for overseas optical communications markets, the company's overseas revenue of optical fiber and cable products has doubled.

PV domestic market indicators will grow in 2020

According to the data disclosed by Wang Bohua at the annual meeting of China's photovoltaic industry, from the perspective of the country and region of China's photovoltaic products exports, Europe is the region with the largest proportion of exports, with exports amounting to US $ 5.2 billion, accounting for 34.8%, followed by Japan, Vietnam, India, and Australia.

The aforementioned brokerage analyst told the China Times reporter that countries such as Europe and Japan have requirements for the proportion of renewable energy in the overall energy utilization. After the price of the industrial chain fell, this part of the demand was more stimulated.

The newly released research report of China Merchants Securities Research Institute also analyzes that since the "513 New Deal" in 2018, the price of monocrystalline PERC modules has dropped from 2.66 yuan / watt to 2.25 yuan / watt at the end of 2018, a decrease of 15%, which stimulates 2019 Outbreak of overseas demand in 2015.

However, the research report also revealed that in the first 10 months of this year, the installed market size in the domestic market has shrunk significantly, and it is expected to fall by 40% year-on-year. Only the outbreak of the overseas market has effectively hedged the shrinkage of the domestic market and promoted a positive growth in global installed capacity in 2019.

Earlier, some industry experts told the China Times reporter when analyzing the decline in domestic installed capacity that the domestic market will not continue to decline. This year's situation is only the pain of the domestic market under policy adjustments. It is predicted that various indicators will increase year-on-year in 2020. .

he aforementioned brokerage analyst expressed a similar positive view, but he also reminded that although the overall situation is good, the two-level differentiation of the photovoltaic market will become more serious in the future, and new capacity will seriously squeeze the old capacity space.