Outlook for overseas photovoltaic market in 2020

1.1 Emerging countries expand overseas PV market space

The global photovoltaic market in 2019 has experienced many twists and turns. The late launch of China's policy has led to delayed project start-ups and lower-than-expected installations. At the same time, the emerging photovoltaic market in Southeast Asia has entered a period of rapid growth and Europe has begun a parity era. Increment.

The Asian photovoltaic market remains broad. Although domestic PV installations were less than expected in 2019, the overall market has not fallen into a downturn. Japan, India and other countries have maintained good growth rates. Vietnam announced in November 2019 the cancellation of PV on-grid tariff subsidies, support for bidding for grid access, and new development stage. Southeast Asia occupies an advantageous geographical location, and the photovoltaic market is in its infancy, with huge potential.

With the efforts of EU member states to achieve the binding national renewable energy targets of 2020, the European solar industry is expected to usher in a year of rapid growth in the photovoltaic market. In 2019, Germany, the Netherlands, and France, as Europe's oldest photovoltaic countries, enjoyed good growth. The rapid growth of Spain and Poland made them enter the first echelon of the European photovoltaic market.

According to historical data and market structure forecast, it is estimated that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 130GW + in 2020, and by 2025, it is estimated that the annual global installed capacity will reach 200 ~ 230GW. In the long run, countries along the “Belt and Road”, South America, the Middle East and other countries are expected to become new growth points for global photovoltaics in the next stage.

1.2PPA leads the era of European photovoltaic parity
The European photovoltaic parity access road has begun in 2017, and it has entered a rapid growth stage in 2019. The feasibility of photovoltaic project parity is closely related to the local solar energy resources. In Europe, Italy, Spain, and Portugal, relying on their geographical advantages, the photovoltaic power generation equipment has a higher number of hours of use and a lower cost of electricity, becoming the first batch of photovoltaic parity projects to be launched. country.

As of the end of 2018, a total of 151MW of parity photovoltaic projects have been put into operation in Europe, and 217MW will be added in 2019H1. Combined with the installed capacity in the second half of 2019, it is expected that Europe will add 1.3GW of parity photovoltaic projects throughout 2019. By the end of 2020, it is estimated that the total capacity of the parity projects completed and put into operation can reach 6.4GW. At present, the parity projects that have been completed, are under construction or have been financed in Europe total 3.7GW. In addition to the planned projects, the total amount of parity photovoltaic projects will reach 12.2GW.

The largest market for European parity photovoltaic projects is Spain. At present, there are 2.7GW of parity projects in Spain that have been completed, are under construction or have been financed, accounting for 71% of Europe. If the planned parity projects are included, the total The capacity will reach 6.9GW, accounting for 57%.

After the cancellation of European photovoltaic subsidies, PPA has become the main financing method for parity projects. A large number of parity projects in Europe are completed through PPA. The currently signed PPA project capacity reaches 5.5GW, of which Spain accounts for 59% of the total capacity with 3.3GW project capacity, and Portugal, Poland and Italy all have a large number of PPA projects.

1.3 China's module overseas penetration continues to grow

The overseas penetration rate of China's photovoltaic modules has continued to increase. Since the 531 photovoltaic policy was released in 2018, China's photovoltaic industry has been forced by policies to reduce costs and prices, which has greatly improved the global competitiveness of domestic photovoltaic modules.

In 2017, the overseas penetration rate of China's photovoltaic modules was 56.8%, which increased to 66.83% in 2018. According to the export data from January to October 2019, it is expected to further increase in 2019. Due to the rise of markets such as the Netherlands, India, and Vietnam, and the continued development of markets such as Japan and Australia, it is expected that China's photovoltaic module exports and proportion will continue to increase in the future.

Global photovoltaic power generation is developing well, and China's module exports are growing rapidly. Global renewable energy output has continued to increase, with an increase of 16.17% in 2017 compared to 2014. The amount of photovoltaic power generation has risen, and in 2017 it increased by 131.49% compared to 2014, accounting for an increase of 3.43 pct. Within 4 years, the global photovoltaic power generation and its share of new energy have doubled, and the development momentum of photovoltaics is strong. The overseas business of China's photovoltaic modules has grown violently since 2017, and the year-on-year growth rates of overseas exports of photovoltaic modules in 2017 and 2018 reached 30.27% and 50.31%, respectively.

In China's energy structure, 85% of electricity comes from thermal and hydropower, and photovoltaics account for only 2%. Due to the large capacity of our country's electricity market, there is huge room for improvement in the proportion of new energy generation in the future, and it will still become the country with the largest number of new photovoltaic installations in the world. In the latest "China's 2050 Photovoltaic Development Outlook", it is estimated that in 2025, 2035, and 2050, China's photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 730, 3000, and 5000GW. By 2050, photovoltaic will become China's largest power source, accounting for about About 40% of the power.