Taiwan's photovoltaic market steadily rises in 2020

After the new grid connection volume entered 1GW in 2018, the photovoltaic market in Taiwan has become the focus of global attention. Relevant units are also actively implementing the second phase of the solar photovoltaic two-year plan. The latest survey shows that the cumulative installed capacity has reached 3.8GW by the end of September 2019, and the adjustment of the new energy subsidy policy (FIT, Feed-in Tariff) in 2020 will help Taiwan ’s cumulative installed capacity reach 6.5GW Moving forward.

According to Chen Junying, an analyst at Jimbon Consulting, since 2018, the average seasonal growth rate of new installations in the Taiwan market is 12%, and the installation volume is about 300MW per quarter. However, many unfinished grid-connected projects in 2018 have been deferred to 2019. The grid connection was completed at the end of the first quarter of the year to the beginning of the second quarter. Affected by the deferred announcement of the new energy subsidy policy in early 2019, new installations were only reflected in the third quarter, but due to the time-consuming operation of large-scale projects, the actual new additions in the quarter were only 297MW, a decrease of 99MW from the second quarter. The market is obviously not busy in the busy season. However, judging from the progress of the new grid-connected volume reaching 955MW from January to September 2019, the annual grid-connected volume is still expected to grow compared with 2018.

Looking forward to Taiwan's photovoltaic market in 2020, if the cumulative installed capacity target of 6.5GW is to be achieved, the average new grid-connected capacity should be at least 550MW per quarter. Chen Junying believes that the overall new FIT will be slightly reduced by 3% in 2020, mainly to prepare for the large-scale integration of existing large and medium-sized projects in the coming year. The 2020 photovoltaic market in Taiwan will present three major trends:

Trend 1: Land consolidation and continuity, feeder and high-voltage construction rely on EPC cooperation

Large ground-based projects have long lead-times, especially in the area of land consolidation and UHV construction. In the early stage of photovoltaic development in Taiwan, the roof was first and then the ground. In addition, local and central units are still in the running-in phase for photovoltaics. Therefore, the ground-based operations still need experience and time to smoothly start. As for the feeder grid connection and high-voltage construction, it depends on the joint cooperation of Taipower and private EPC to accelerate the grid connection speed. It is estimated that medium-sized projects below 50MW will start a large number of grid connections in the third quarter of 2020. As for the installed capacity of large-scale projects, it is estimated that they will be concentrated in the second and third quarters of 2021.

Trend 2: Module factories increase the domestic market share and prices continue to fall slightly

Due to the stable domestic demand market performance in Taiwan, Taiwan's component factories have gradually adjusted their sales strategies at home and abroad in the past two years, increasing the local share to more than 60%. In 2020, Taiwan's component factories will not have any expansion plans for the time being, and there will be no innovative technology products. Mainly supplemented by existing products supplemented by small wattage. In terms of price, the price of components in 2020 will be reduced by about 6% compared to 2019.

Trend 3: Overseas inverter manufacturers join the battle, inverter warranty years increase, and competition intensifies

After 2019, the global market has become more decentralized and stable, and the importance of Taiwan has continued to increase. In addition, the stability of FIT has not only attracted many foreign investors to invest in power plants in Taiwan, but also has become an important market for overseas inverter manufacturers. In order to obtain orders, overseas manufacturers have extended the warranty period of the inverter from five to ten years in order to increase customer incentives. In the face of intensified competition, inverter manufacturers that have priority to obtain large-scale project supply in 2020 will occupy a significant position in the market.